Chart of the Week: Large Urban Counties are at the Forefront of America's Demographic Change

To add equity data to the national dialogue about growth and prosperity, every week the National Equity Atlas team posts a new chart from the Equity Atlas related to current events and issues.

It’s been well reported that Hillary Clinton, despite failing to secure the necessary 270 Electoral College votes, won the popular vote by more than 2 million ballots. At the same time, county-level maps of election results show a sea of red. There are now nine times as many “Republican landslide counties” (counties that went Republican by more than 20 percentage points) than “Democratic landslide counties” according to The New York Times. But the areas where Trump won big are less populated than the areas where Clinton won big: the 2,232 Republican landslide counties have less people overall than the 242 Democratic landslide counties. And according to a Brookings analysis, the less than 500 counties that went Democratic made up 64 percent of total U.S. economic activity in 2015.

Our analysis of Large Urban Counties (LUCs), counties with more than 500,000 residents, underscorces just how urban and diverse the country has become. LUCs are not just the economic powerhouses of the country, they are also home to a disproportionate share of people of color.

This week’s chart draws from the new people of color maps added to Atlas to highlight how the nation’s most populous, “high output” counties are at the forefront of America’s demographic changes. In 2014, there were 133 LUCs, accounting for just four percent of counties nationwide. Of these 133 counties, 52 are already majority people of color and 18 are two-thirds people of color. The U.S. population as a whole is just 37 percent people of color, but half of the 151 million residents of LUCs are people of color.

LUCs are major economic actors and have a unique opportunity to advance equitable economic policies. Last month, Angela Glover Blackwell, CEO of PolicyLink, in her address to the Large Urban County Caucus (LUCC) of the National Association of Counties, highlighted several strategies that LUCs can adopt to catalyze equitable growth, including the integration of health and human services into development through investing in the residents and workers as well as the built environment.

To see how population and the share of people of color vary by county in your region, visit the National Equity Atlas, type in your state or region, and share the map for your community using #equitydata.

Chart of the Week: #Fightfor15’s National Day of Action Lifts Up the Working Poor

To add equity data to the national dialogue about growth and prosperity, every week the National Equity Atlas team posts a new chart from the Equity Atlas related to current events and issues.

Today is the #Fightfor15’s National Day of Action. Across the country, thousands of fast food and airport workers from Los Angeles to Chicago and Little Rock are striking and protesting as part of a call for a $15 minimum wage and collective bargaining rights. Organizers emphasize that this movement is about restoring dignity for all working people.

Had the minimum wage kept up with productivity, it would be nearly $19 an hour today according to the Economic Policy Insitute (EPI). Regardless of where one stands on the issue, most agree that people working full-time year-round should not be in or close to poverty. But data show that this is the case for many workers, particularly workers of color.

To provide additional context to actions taking place at Chicago O’Hare and across the country, this week’s chart looks at the rate of working poverty by race/ethnicity and nativity in the city of Chicago. The working poor are defined as full-time workers, ages 25 to 64, with a family income below 200 percent of poverty (based on their family size and composition). As the chart below illustrates, more than one in four Latino immigrant full-time workers in Chicago have a family income that places them below 200 percent of poverty. Nearly 13 percent of U.S.-born Black full-time workers in the city also fall below 200 percent of poverty. This compares to just three percent of U.S.-born White full-time workers.

The poverty threshold is determined federally and not adjusted for local cost of living. According to the MIT Living Wage Calculator, the living wage for a family of three (one adult and two children) is $31/hour in Cook County, where Chicago is located. The 200 percent of poverty wage, on the other hand, is $20/hour. As the low-wage sector has expanded, the share of adults who are working full-time jobs but still cannot make ends meet has increased, particularly among Latinos and other workers of color. The failure of even full-time work to pay family-supporting wages dampens the potential of working families and the nation as a whole.

Fortunately, we know which economic policies, if adopted or expanded, can lift full-time workers out of poverty and those participating in the National Day of Action today are working to build political will around them. In addition to raising federal and state minimum wages, those policies include expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Child Tax Credit (CTC), which are responsible for lifting millions of families and children out of poverty each year. For a list of policies, visit EPI’s Agenda to Raise America’s Pay.

To see how working poverty varies in your region, visit the National Equity Atlas, type in your city, region, or state and share the chart for your community using #equitydata and #Fightfor15.

National Equity Atlas Update

Dear Equity Atlas Users,
 

Now more than ever, data that is disaggregated by race/ethnicity and place must be used to sustain and amplify the movement for equitable growth and shared prosperity. Here is this month’s roundup of news and updates to help you continue to make the case for equity as the path to a successful future. 

State of Black Long Island Project Launched
Last month, we launched a new engagement to advance racial equity and inclusive growth in America’s quintessential suburb: Long Island. In partnership with the Urban League of Long Island, the Long Island Community Foundation, and Citi Community Development, PolicyLink and PERE are analyzing changing demographics and the state of equity in Nassau and Suffolk counties, with a particular focus on the Black community, and building a policy agenda for racial economic inclusion. We will be releasing the report and policy agenda in February 2017. 

Data Updates for 17 Indicators
For several months, our team has been updating our database to incorporate the most recent data from one of our key sources, which is the 2014 five-year pooled data from the IPUMS American Community Survey. (The pooled data is an average of the samples taken between 2010 and 2014.) We are happy to share that we've now updated 17 of our 32 indicators, including:

  • Demographics: Detailed Race/Ethnicity, Median Age
  • Economic Vitality: Homeownership, Income Growth, Income Inequality: Gini, Income Inequality: 95/20 ratio, Job and GDP Growth, Poverty, Unemployment, Wages: Median, Working Poor 
  • Readiness: Education Levels and Job Requirements, Disconnected Youth
  • Connectedness: Car Access, Commute Time, Housing Burden, Neighborhood Poverty

 

Large Urban Counties Are Leading the Nation’s Growth
Although they represent just 4 percent of the 3,142 counties in the United States, large urban counties — those with at least 500,000 residents — are home to nearly half of the U.S. population. For a convening of the Large Urban County Caucus (LUCC) of the National Association of Counties on November 18 in New York City, the National Equity Atlas team created an infographic and blogpost illustrating how these counties are at the forefront of the nation’s shifting demographics.
 
Charts of the Week
In a month where setbacks seemed to pile on top of one another, the three Charts of the Week posted to the Atlas Data In Action section showed where there is hope on the horizon. On Election Day, voters in Maine approved a minimum wage increase to $12.00/hour and this chart reveals the impact this can have for workers in the state. Voters in Indianapolis authorized a progressive plan to fund mass transit expansion and we generated a charton racial disparities in car access underscoring how transit equity will help connect people to jobs. Finally, this GIF displays the percent people of color in the U.S., by county, from 1980 to 2040. With each decade going forward, the strength of our economy increasingly depends on the readiness and full inclusion of people of color as workers, innovators, entrepreneurs, and leaders.
 

Thank you!
The National Equity Atlas team at PolicyLink and the USC Program for Environmental and Regional Equity (PERE)

Large Urban Counties are Leading the Nation’s Demographic Change

 

On November 18, the Large Urban County Caucus (LUCC) of the National Association of Counties convened in New York City, bringing together county leaders from across the country to share ideas and develop innovative policy solutions to address their most pressing challenges.

Although they represent just 4 percent of the 3,142 counties in the United States, large urban counties (LUCs) — those with more than 500,000 residents — are home to nearly half of the U.S. population. In other words, as the graphic below illustrates, more than 150 million people live in the 133 LUCs in the United States.

So it is no surprise that these counties are at the forefront of the nation’s shifting demographics. As data in the National Equity Atlas show, the face of America is changing: Just a few years from now, the majority of people under the age of 18 will be youth of color, and by 2044 the United States will be a majority people-of-color nation.

LUCs are already there. The National Equity Atlas team at PolicyLink and PERE analyzed the current and projected demographics of these counties to highlight the economic imperative of equity and inclusion. More than 50 percent of these counties’ residents are people of color, compared to 37 percent of the U.S. as a whole. Today, LUCs are home to 65 percent of people of color in the United States, including nearly 8 out of 10 Asians and Pacific Islanders and 7 out of 10 Latinos.

Over the next few decades, the U.S. population will not only become more diverse, it will also become more urban. Projections show that by 2050 there will be 183 LUCs, and 224 million people will live in them. That is why this year’s LUCC symposium theme, “County Leadership for Economic Opportunity,” is so important: in order to build the vibrant, thriving, inclusive communities of tomorrow, leaders must act today to embed equity into every function of government. Angela Glover Blackwell, chief executive officer of PolicyLink, presented the findings of our demographic analysis, and offered some important guidance for county leaders grappling with the challenges of building an economy in which all can participate and prosper.

LUCs are major economic actors, directing over $350 billion of annual investments in infrastructure, public facilities, health services, economic development, and other critical services and programs. And nowhere else is the economic imperative of equity more clear: by 2050, LUCs will be home to 56 percent of the U.S. population, including 41 percent of Whites and 69 percent of people of color. In her remarks, Blackwell laid out a series of strategies that LUCs can adopt to catalyze equitable growth and provide opportunities for those being left behind to reach their full potential:

  • Prioritize infrastructure investments to improve economic mobility, build career pathways, and create lifelines to opportunity by prioritizing local and targeted hiring and increasing opportunity in disinvested neighborhoods.
  • Align economic development strategies that aim to grow “high-opportunity jobs” with workforce strategies to prepare people to succeed in those jobs. Make equity and inclusion benchmarks a requirement for the allocation of economic development incentives, and hold businesses and developers accountable for delivering on them, through community benefits agreements or other appropriate mechanisms.
  • Integrate and health and human services into development, investing in the residents and workers as well as the built environment of neighborhoods. Remove barriers to preventive services to improve and safeguard the health of tomorrow’s leaders, innovators, and workers.
  • Ensure that jobs related to the construction and operation of public facilities are good jobs that providing family-supporting wages, health care and other benefits, paid sick leave, and opportunities for professional development.

 

By leveraging their considerable assets to foster economic inclusion, create healthy communities of opportunity, and champion justice and safety for all, large urban counties can play a decisive leadership role in building equitable regions in which all can participate, prosper, and reach their full potential.

 

Chart of the Week: A Vote for Transit Equity in Indianapolis

To add equity data to the national dialogue about growth and prosperity, every week the National Equity Atlas team posts a new chart from the Equity Atlas related to current events and issues.

Last Tuesday, voters in Marion County, Indiana, delivered a local election-day victory for equity when they authorized a progressive plan to fund mass transit expansion throughout the Indianapolis area.

Voters approved more than two-thirds of the nearly 50 transit-related measures that appeared on ballots across the country last week, totaling nearly $200 billion in public transportation projects (according to the American Public Transportation Association). But Marion County’s Question 2 stands out because it authorizes the City-County Council to raise funds through an income tax increase, rather than the regressive sale tax increases that many other transit plans rely on for capital.

Reliable transportation is essential to help workers and families connect to jobs, education and training, services, and other community resources. And as data from the National Equity Atlas show, many households of color in Indianpolis (12 percent) lack access to a car; 14.6 percent of Black household do not have a vehicle, compared to 4.5 percent of White households. 

To grow an equitable economy, all communities must be able to easily connect to the opportunities and assets in a region. This requires policies just like those included in the Marion County Transit Plan, which calls for $390 million of investments to improve existing bus services — extending hours, adding new routes and increasing frequency, and expanding days of service — and funding the operation of three bus rapid transit lines. These services could put two-thirds of the city’s jobs and people within walking distance of reliable public transit.

To see how car access varies in your state, region, or city, visit the National Equity Atlas, download the chart for your community, and post to social media using #equitydata.

Chart of the Week: Maine’s New Minimum Wage Law is a Win for Equity

To add equity data to the national dialogue about growth and prosperity, every week the National Equity Atlas team posts a new chart from the Equity Atlas related to current events and issues.

Earlier this week, voters in various cities, counties, and four states approved minimum-wage increases that have the potential to raise incomes for millions of working Americans.  Washington state will raise its minimum hourly wage to $13.50 by 2020, while Arizona, Colorado, and Maine will raise their respective state minimums to $12.00 in the same time frame. These are important victories for the equity movement and the #FightFor15.

Maine’s plan is especially encouraging; not only will it boost the current minimum of $7.50/hour by 60 percent over the next few years, it will tie the minimum wage to inflation after 2020 and eliminate the sub-minimum “tipped wage” by 2024. No other state east of the Mississippi has moved to end the so-called tip credit that allows employers to pay tipped workers less than minimum wage.

Atlas data underscore how inequitable income growth contributes to rising inequality and creates a drag on the overall economy of a region and the nation as a whole. As this week’s chart illustrates, real income for full-time workers at the 10th percentile in Maine has remained virtually unchanged for many decades – growing just 1.4 percent since 1980. For workers at the 90th percentile, on the other hand, incomes have grown by more than 21 percent. 

Increasing the income of low-wage workers is essential to build an economy that works for all

Equitable growth would mean rising wages for all workers, but with the largest gains going to those at the bottom of the income distribution. In Seattle, the first major city to pioneer a $15 minimum wage, the pay of workers covered by the new law grew by 12 percent during the first-stage of the phase-in increase — compared to just 5 percent for workers in similar, neighboring places — and the employment stability of low-wage workers increased, as well.

To see how earned income growth for full-time wage and salaried workers varies across the income distribution for your state, region, or city, visit the National Equity Atlas, download the chart for your community, and post to social media using #equitydata.

Chart of the Week: Vote for Candidates Who Will Invest in our Future

To add equity data to the national dialogue about growth and prosperity, every week the National Equity Atlas team posts a new chart from the Equity Atlas related to current events and issues.

News stories about broad demographic shifts and the changing face of America are increasingly common. Last year, California — the most populous state in the nation — became the fourth “majority-minority” state. Already the majority of youth under age 5 nationwide are people of color, and by 2044, the nation will be majority people of color.

Today’s policy decisions will affect the future growth and prosperity of the nation for years to come. To illustrate the importance of racial equity, this week’s chart is a GIF showing the percent people of color in the U.S., by county, from 1980 to 2040. With each decade going forward, the strength of our economy increasingly depends on the readiness and full inclusion of people of color as workers, innovators, entrepreneurs, and leaders. On Tuesday, vote for candidates who will invest in our future workforce and build an economy that works for all.

In 1980, the U.S. was 20 percent people of color. The dark orange counties, representing areas where people of color comprised more than 80 percent of the population, were located throughout the South and Southwest, with the exception of Native American reservations in the Dakotas and Wisconsin. From 1980 to 2020, the share of people of color in the United States is expected to more than double to 41 percent. By 2040, the U.S. is projected to be 49 percent people of color.

According to 2015 Census data, 370 counties, home to nearly one in three Americans, are already majority people of color. That’s up from 339 counties in 2010. Some of the counties that have become majority people of color in the last five years include parts of Fort Worth and Austin in Texas and Charlotte, North Carolina.

To see how the share of people of color is expected to change through 2040 in your community, visit the National Equity Atlas, and type in your region or state. Download the chart and share it on social media using #equitydata.

Chart of the Week: Oregon's Measure 98 Invests in Educational Equity

To add equity data to the national dialogue about growth and prosperity, every week the National Equity Atlas team posts a new chart from the Equity Atlas related to current events and issues.

With less than two weeks left until Election Day, many voters across the country are sifting through sample ballots to determine which state and local measures to support. In Oregon, Measure 98 would commit at least $147 million annually to programs in dropout prevention, career and technical education, and college readiness. The measure is designed to boost high school graduation rates, particularly among low-income students, students of color, and students with disabilities, while addressing the serious shortage of skilled and educated workers in the state.

Atlas data underscore how important boosting educational attainment among students of color is for Oregon’s economic future especially considering the current education levels of adults 25 to 64 years old.

As this week’s chart illustrates, by 2020, 43 percent of jobs in Oregon are expected to require at least an Associate’s degree (AA). Yet most of Oregon’s workers do not possess this level of education, and its fastest-growing demographics are the furthest behind. Between 2010 and 2040, Latinos will grow from 12 to 24 percent of Oregon’s population. Yet, today, just 28 percent of U.S.-born Latinos and 10 percent of immigrant Latino’s have an associate’s degree or higher.

Measure 98 aligns well with the type of equity-focused policy agenda that Oregon’s state policymakers are seeking to implement. On October 5th, PolicyLink staff led a workshop with more than 50 Oregon government leaders in policy arenas including economic development, education, healthy communities, and environment, to help them integrate an equity and inclusion focus throughout their work.

To see how education levels and job requirements vary for your state, region, or city, visit the National Equity Atlas, download the chart for your community, and post to social media using #equitydata.

New Atlas Maps Highlighted in CityLab

Yesterday, CityLab published a story on the new mapping breakdowns added to the National Equity Atlas. The author, Laura Bliss, underscores the role spatial data has played in understanding and addressing inequity. She writes,

"Mapmakers are still figuring out the best ways to plot disparities across all sorts of measures—jobs and school quality, environmental health, and transportation access, for example—to advocate for policy change. The National Equity Atlas, developed by PolicyLink and the University of Southern California’s Program for Environmental and Regional Equity (PERE), might be the best and most comprehensive graphic call for economic equality available today.”

The article highlights disconnected youth and unemployment maps in communities of color for the United States overall and in the city of Chicago. Check out the new maps for yourself on the following indicators: people of color, race/ethnicity, unemployment and disconnected youth.

Introducing New Neighborhood Opportunity Maps

We know that opportunity differs by neighborhood, and maps are one way to visualize this variation across a given city, region, or state. That’s why today, we are adding mapping breakdowns to the following four indicators on the National Equity Atlas:

 

These new interactive maps allow you to visualize data by county or by census tract as well as by city, region, or state. You can also toggle back and forth between different years to see how the geography of opportunity has changed over time and create custom maps using an interactive filter and scroller. On the race/ethnicity map, for example, the scroller allows you to visualize measures of opportunity (e.g. homeownership) in relation to neighborhood composition (e.g. the share of the Latino population). And on the disconnected youth and unemployment maps, the scroller allows you to visualize the indicator as neighborhood compositions (e.g. share of the Black or Native American population) vary.

This blog walks you through how to access and use the new maps. Register for our 30-minute webinar on November 2 for a live walk through.

How to find the new maps

To access the new maps for the people of color indicator, click on the Indicators tab in the top navigation bar. Then under the Demographics menu, select “People of color.” You can look at the data by county (the default), by the largest 150 regions, or by state. You can also toggle back and forth between every decade from 1980 to 2040 to see how the share of people of color in the U.S. has changed over time. The GIF below pulls from the new maps to show how the share of people of color has changed from 1980 to 2010 and how it is projected to change by 2040. You can also see the new people of color map on the homepage of the Atlas.

You can filter by White areas, Black areas, Latino areas, etc. in the people of color, unemployment, and disconnected youth maps, and you can also filter by different measures of opportunity in the race/ethnicity map. To get to the race/ethnicity indicator, select Race/ethnicity (also in the Demographics menu).

The default breakdown shows a chart of how the racial/ethnic composition of the country has changed from 1980 to 2010, and how it’s projected to change through 2040. Underneath the graphic display, you’ll see the different breakdowns, the second of which is the “Race and ethnicity map.” The default map is the percent people of color in 2014, but you can also look at the data from 2000. Under the year options, you’ll see the six major race/ethnicity groups and all people of color. If you select “Native American”, for example, you’ll get a map of the percent Native American by county. The darker purple counties represent areas with a Native population larger than 40 percent (see screenshot below).

Using the opportunity filters

The filters located on the bottom right of the page allow you create custom maps based on various measures of opportunity such as homeownership and the share of the population with an associate’s degree or higher. To illustrate how the filters work and how to access data by neighborhood, take the state of Mississippi as an example.

You’ll notice that census tracts are not one of the geography options in the map above. In order to view the data by census tract, you must type in a state, region, or city in the Explore box. After typing in and selecting Mississippi, you get a map of the state by tracts (the default geography at the sub-national level). If you click on “Black”, you get a map of the Black population share. The purple tracts are neighborhoods with a Black population greater than 40 percent. The light blue areas, on the other hand, have a Black population under 10 percent.

To use the filters, first select one, like homeownership, then move the scroller at the bottom to only show areas where the homeownership is at least a given percentage. The overall homeownership rate in Mississippi is 68 percent, but moving the scroller to 68 percent, creates a map of census tracts where the homeownership rate is 68 percent or higher and many of the purple tracts (representing majority Black tracts) in the northwestern part of the state disappear as a result (see maps below). Those tracts that disappear have a homeownership rate less than 68 percent.

Using maps to inform decision-making

These maps can be especially helpful in developing targeted employment or workforce development initiatives. The overall unemployment rate in Mississippi was 10 percent, but this was clearly not the case across all census tracts. Filtering the map by tracts with an unemployment rate of at least 15 percent produces a map with several majority Black tracts. This map can support programs and initiatives through the state workforce investment board by ensuring that resources are targeted to communities that need them most.

Note: While the size (land area) of the census tracts in the state varies widely, each has a roughly similar number of people. A large tract in a more rural part of the state likely contains a similar number of people as a seemingly tiny tract in an urban area. Care should be taken not to pay an unwarranted amount of attention to large tracts just because they are large.

Mississippi has the highest rate of disconnected youth of all states, so understanding how the number and share of disconnected youth varies across the state is central to developing an effective workforce development or education program. To find the map for disconnected youth, select “Disconnected Youth” in Readiness section of the Equity menu. The very last breakdown is the mapping breakdown. As you’ll see in the map below, there are several red census tracts, symbolizing areas where the share of disconnected youth is greater than 20 percent. As you hover over different tracts, you can see both the share and the total number of disconnected youth. In census tract 9504 in Prentiss County, for example, more than 100 young people, or 57 percent of 16 to 19 year olds, were disconnected from both school and work.

The filters and scroller on this map allow you to visualize disconnectedness in relation to neighborhood composition. As you filter to majority White or majority Black neighborhoods, you’ll notice how disconnectedness varies geographically.

For a walk through of the unemployment maps, view our previous blog. For a live walk through of the new maps, register for our webinar. Share your thoughts or questions during the webinar or through our contact form.

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