Relevant indicators:

• People of color
• Race/ethnicity
• Population growth

Projections of the racial/ethnic composition are based on a combination of initial county-level projections from Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., and national projections from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The national projections we present are based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest National Population Projections at the time of our last update (see indicator-specific data notes for the particular version currently used). However, because these projections follow the OMB 1997 guidelines on racial classification and essentially distribute the other single-race alone group across the other defined racial/ethnic categories, adjustments were made to be consistent with the six broad racial/ethnic groups included in the Atlas (which are based on the 2000 Census classification). Specifically, we compared the percentage of the total population composed of each racial/ethnic group from the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates program for the latest year available (which follows the OMB 1997 guidelines) to the percentage reported in the corresponding ACS 1-year Summary File (which follows the 2000 Census classification). We subtracted the percentage derived using data from the Population Estimates program from the percentage derived using the ACS summary file to obtain an adjustment factor for each group (all of which were negative, except that for the mixed/other group) and carried this adjustment factor forward by adding it to the projected percentage for each group in each projection year. Finally, we applied the resulting adjusted projected population distribution by race/ethnicity to the total projected population from the National Population Projections to get the projected number of people by race/ethnicity in each projection year.

Similar adjustments were made to the initial county-level projections from Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. Like the 1990 MARS file described above, the Woods & Poole projections follow the OMB Directive 15-race categorization, assigning all persons identifying as other or multiracial to one of five mutually exclusive race categories: White, Black, Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, or Native American. Thus, we first generated an adjusted version of the county-level Woods & Poole projections that removed the other or multiracial group from each of these five categories. This was done by comparing the Woods & Poole projections for 2010 to the actual results from SF1 of the 2010 Census, figuring out the share of each racial/ethnic group in the Woods & Poole data that was composed of other or multiracial persons in 2010, and applying it forward to later projection years. From these projections, we calculated the county-level distribution by race/ethnicity in each projection year for five groups (White, Black, Latino, Asian or Pacific Islander, and Native American), exclusive of other and mixed-race people.

To estimate the county-level share of population for those classified as other or multiracial in each projection year, we then generated a simple straight-line projection of this share using information from SF1 of the 2000 and 2010 Census. Keeping the projected other or multiracial share fixed, we allocated the remaining population share to each of the other five racial/ethnic groups by applying the racial/ethnic distribution implied by our adjusted Woods & Poole projections for each county and projection year.

The result was a set of adjusted projections at the county level for the six broad racial/ethnic groups included in the Atlas, which were then applied to projections of the total population by county from Woods & Poole to get projections of the number of people for each of the six racial/ethnic groups. Finally, an IPF procedure was applied to bring the county level results into alignment with our adjusted national projections by race/ethnicity described above. The final adjusted county-level results were then aggregated to produce a final set of projections at the metro area and state levels.